Around midnight on October 25, 2023, with minimal warning, Hurricane Otis struck the coastal city of Acapulco, Mexico. It rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane. The storm's impact on Acapulco was devastating. Data from weather stations revealed that the storm delivered sustained winds of 113.64 mph (182.88 km/h). And gusts reaching a staggering 204.90 mph (329.76 km/h). 

Hurricane Otis became the strongest storm to hit Mexico. It was also one of the most poorly forecast. The economic toll was substantial. Losses were expected to be an estimated US$15 billion. This surpasses records and rivals Hurricane Wilma as Mexico's most expensive weather disaster. Tourism, a vital sector for Acapulco, faced a severe setback. Officials predicted a 16% shrinkage in the local economy in its aftermath.

Hurricane Otis was the fifteenth tropical storm and the tenth hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season. This was also the second Category 5 hurricane of the season. It originated from a storm cell several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. It was initially forecast only to be a weak tropical storm. But it intensified just before making landfall as it passed over the warm seawaters of Acapulco Bay. It exploded into peak winds of 165 miles per hour. This lasted for one to two hours - devastating the city and its inhabitants.

Hurricane Otis - storm formation and path

On 15 October 2023, the United States National Hurricane Centre (NHC) reported that the storm had amplified and was developing a broad low-pressure area a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Initially, weather forecasters believed that this storm activity was just another tropical cyclone common at this time of the year.

However, convection grew as upper-level wind shear moved the storm to the west. By October 22, the NHC classified the storm system as Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. By now, the storm was located 530 miles south-south-east of Acapulco, Mexico. Six hours later, the system intensified into a tropical storm, and meteorologists named it Otis

When the storm hit, the ocean surface temperatures were 86–88 °F (30–31 °C). This was slightly above average for this time of year. The storm system then shifted from north to north-west - but with winds of only 4–5 mph (6–8 km/h). On the afternoon of 23 October, a convective band developed with thunderstorms.

By October 23-24, microwave satellite imagery showed a low-level ring structure and the storm’s forward motion increased. This began an intensification phase, which continued until the storm struck Acapulco just after midnight on 25 October. At this time, the NHC upgraded Otis to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. However, the Air Force Reserve Unit's Hurricane Hunter mission identified a more intense system than that shown in satellite imagery. Based upon this new data, the NHC then raised its predictions for Hurricane Otis to a Category 3 hurricane (with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h)). 

Rapid intensification of Hurricane Otis

In the final 24 hours before landfall, Hurricane Otis intensified at one of the fastest rates ever recorded in the satellite era. The storm’s rapid intensification led many commentators to speculate whether it was natural or the result of weather manipulation.

During this time, Hurricane Otis’ maximum sustained winds increased by 110 to 115 mph (175 to 185 km/h). This ranked it as the second-fastest-intensifying hurricane in recent history according to the National Hurricane Center. Only Hurricane Patricia, which struck the Eastern Pacific in 2015, surpassed Otis in strength. Meteorologists typically considered the brief window of wind speed increase too short to trigger such a drastic escalation.

Weather forecasters believe that the warmer ocean temperatures, combined with the wind shear, worked together to intensify the storm. The rapid intensification also contributed to the lack of forecasting and warnings to the local population. 

National Hurricane Center reports

The US NHC described Hurricane Otis as a "nightmare scenario". The storm struck near Acapulco, Mexico, at 1:25 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, October 25. This Category 5 hurricane brought 165 mph winds and a central pressure of 923 mb. Otis underwent an unexpected and rapid intensification, escalating from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds—a staggering 105 mph increase—within just 24 hours before landfall. Such rapid intensification is particularly dangerous as it leaves little time for people to prepare for the impending storm.

The National Hurricane Center reported that Otis’ peak intensification rate was 95 knots (110 mph) in 24 hours (ending at 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday), marking the second-highest rate in the Western Hemisphere, only surpassed by Hurricane Patricia's 120-mph increase off the Pacific coast of Mexico in 2015.

Approximately four hours before Otis' eyewall moved over, the Acapulco airport ceased transmitting data. However, Isla Roqueta, an island just offshore of Acapulco's west side, recorded sustained winds of 81 mph, gusting to 133 mph, at 12:45 a.m. CDT. A peak gust of 135 mph was recorded at 12:30 a.m. The minimum pressure at the station was 957 mb during the highest winds, indicating that the station missed the eye, which passed just south of the island.

Consequently, Acapulco's most heavily developed areas, with a population of just over 1 million, experienced the more powerful right-front winds of Otis. This event may have set a record for the largest number of people ever to experience the eyewall of a Category 5 storm, with the only comparable case being Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds.

Forecasting failures

Weather forecasters in the United States said that forecasting models “completely blew it”. National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said, “That’s a very bad scenario, populated area, rapid intensification very close to landfall, a change in the expectations about the impacts that’s happening on a time scale that doesn’t give people a lot of time to respond.”

Meteorologists said that the storm’s unanticipated buildup occurred because the storm had “found a much more favorable environment than we were anticipating.” NHC Director Brennan said one part was warm water, another was that the winds — moving in the right direction and at the right altitude. These features encouraged a somewhat haphazard storm to rapidly develop structure and strengthen. The key to its amplification and speed was warm ocean water, which provides the necessary fuel for hurricanes to grow big.

The satellite imagery with lightning shown above was taken at sunset on October 24, 2023, of Hurricane Otis as it rapidly intensified to category 5 strength en route to a landfall in Acapulco, Mexico.

Hurricane Otis - Making Landfall

When Hurricane Otis made landfall in Acapulco with winds of around 165 mph (270 km/hr) it became the fourth strongest landfalling Mexican hurricane by sustained wind speed. Hurricane Otis was similar in scope and damage to 1992 Hurricane Andrew, which hit Miami - also a Category 5. 

Otis was designated a Category 5 hurricane when it was just 55 miles south-southeast of Acapulco at 10 pm as the city’s one million inhabitants were preparing to go to bed. One hour later, the storm reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 165 miles per hour and a minimum central barometric pressure of 923 mb. To put this number into perspective, the barometric pressure experienced in the eye of the storm of Hurricane Wilma (also a Category 5 storm,) which occurred on 19 October 2005, was 882 hPa (or 12.79 psi). 

It was accompanied by strong lightning with 26,000 strikes in the 24 hours before and after, with the greatest activity occurring in the 35 minutes before the storm made landfall around 12.45 am. 

By the time the storm had crossed the port city and interacted with the mountains of Sierra Madre del Sur, the eye of the storm began to dissipate and disappear from satellite imagery. Its peak intensity was around 1.25 am. By 1 pm the following day, the US National Hurricane Center downgraded the storm to a tropical cyclone. By then, the city was almost destroyed. The image below, posted on Instagram, shows parts of the city the day after the storm.

Damages and casualties

Official estimates stated that a total of 52 people were killed by Hurricane Otis, with 32 listed missing in official figures released in December 2023. Three foreigners were included in the death toll. Acapulco locals challenged these figures as an underestimate and funeral homes in Acapulco calculated at least 350 deaths.

Because of the death and devastation to the city, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name Otis from the eastern Pacific hurricane naming list in March 2024. And it was to be replaced by the name Otilio for the 2029 season.

The economic cost to the city was later estimated to have caused US$3.2 billion (or 53,198 million Mexican pesos) in damages.

Humourously, when Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador visited the city as part of recovery efforts in the days following the storm, and his jeep became stuck on the waterlogged roads. Social media lost it's collective mind and memes appeared suggesting that this was yet another of The Simpsons' predictions coming true.

Recovery and rebuilding

Recovery and rebuilding were slow, and Bloomberg reported that Acapulco's situation remained grim for several months after the event. Even one year later, the city was still recovering from the impact of Hurricane Otis, which left over $3.2 billion in damage. In this period, many of the city's hotels and condominiums along its famed beaches lay abandoned, with facades missing and swimming pools filled with debris. Despite some hotels reopening, the city's overall hotel capacity remained below 50% of its pre-hurricane levels, underscoring the ongoing challenges in Acapulco's tourism sector. 

Bloomberg reported continued widespread infrastructure issues, including malfunctioning traffic lights, streets cluttered with trash, and damaged roads. The extensively damaged roads and infrastructure rendered some areas inaccessible. By November 6, normal operations had resumed at 60 Pemex gas stations. And local authorities estimated they had cleaned up 250 metric tons of garbage along Acapulco's coastal streets.

Nonetheless, six months post-hurricane, signs of devastation from Hurricane Otis were still evident in Acapulco. Bloomberg and Expansión reported that washed-up boats still littered beaches while owners shuttered upscale restaurants. Half-sunken yachts and debris clogged the marina. Expansión noted that Acapulco faced a lengthy path to recovery, citing slow progress and persistent trash accumulation as ongoing challenges.

Economic fallout

Economically, Acapulco suffered a significant setback. Before Hurricane Otis, Acapulco generated 65% of Guerrero’s tourism revenue. After the hurricane, this figure dropped to just 23% - a severe economic decline.

Beyond the physical and economic toll, Acapulco had to contend with serious security concerns. Bloomberg reported ongoing issues with gangs that seized control during the post-hurricane looting, particularly in non-tourist areas. Extortion and homicides were prevalent, underscoring the security challenges that persist despite efforts to restore normalcy.

Furthermore, Acapulco was grappling with a dengue outbreak exacerbated by the hurricane's destruction, which disrupted mosquito fumigation efforts. This potential health crisis added another layer of complexity to Acapulco's recovery efforts.

One week after Hurricane Otis struck, President López Obrador announced a 61.3-billion-peso (US$3.6 billion) recovery plan for Acapulco. By February, Tourism Minister Torruco reported that the recovery efforts were progressing faster than initially anticipated.

Despite this, only 9,500 out of the 21,000 hotel rooms that were operational before Otis were able to accommodate guests. For at least six months after the hurricane struck, there were only 45% of hotel rooms available for rent.

Bloomberg reported insurers paid just US$530 million, despite initial damage estimates exceeding US$15 billion. Final payouts may reach US$2 billion, close to the actual damages of US$3.2 billion, per Mexico’s insurance association.

Hurricane John - October 2024

To make matters worse, only one year later, in October 2024, Hurricane John hit Acapulco, although with far less severity. Hurricane John was a Category 3, and it made landfall further south. This still caused severe flooding and widespread damage to an already traumatised population. Hurricane John generated over one metre of rain, submerging neighbourhoods and causing serious disruptions. Roads became impassable because of landslides. Extensive power outages in both Guerrero and Oaxaca left tens of thousands of residents in both states without power. Around 40,000 homes were damaged, affecting more than 150,000 residents.

Weather forecasting

Weather forecasting remains an imperfect science, despite significant technological advancements. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently launched a $180 million supercomputer. It performs 69.7 trillion calculations per second to improve weather forecasting. However, long-range forecasts still come with considerable uncertainties, even with the aid of sophisticated satellite imagery and other modern technologies. Meteorologists reliably predict weather 24–48 hours ahead, often without needing the most advanced tools for short-term forecasts.

Acapulco as a smart city

Some commentators suggested that the recovery and rebuilding efforts of coastal cities like Acapulco provide ideal opportunities for city planners to transform a devastated area into a smart "15-minute" city. The following AI imagining of a rebuilt Acapulco was widely shared on social media.

Smart "15-minute" cities will conceivably include more advanced urban infrastructure. They will include the Internet of Things (IoT) and real-time monitoring of the movement of citizens. There may also be so-called smart energy and smart transportation systems. A digital smart city, such as those envisioned by globalists, would conceivably reduce the individual freedoms of citizens. It does this by imposing digital governance and mass surveillance. Presently, such a scenario seems unlikely. Acapulco (like much of Mexico) is a cash-driven economy with strong familial, social, and community networks.

Nonetheless, concerns around the development of a smart city in Acapulco were linked to conspiracy theories that Hurricane Otis was a geoengineered weather event created by unknown malevolent state actors using technology available to agencies like HAARP (the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program) based in Alaska.

Final thoughts

In conclusion, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Otis in Acapulco is a stark reminder of nature's unpredictable and destructive power. Despite significant advancements in weather forecasting technology, the storm's rapid intensification and the subsequent failure to provide adequate warnings highlight meteorologists' ongoing challenges. For the residents of Acapulco, the road to recovery was long and arduous, with the city grappling with both physical damage and a severely impacted economy. While recovery efforts were underway, including a substantial financial package from the Mexican government, the rebuilding process was slow, with many areas still facing significant infrastructural and security challenges. Hurricane Otis serves as a reminder that while progress in forecasting and preparedness can help mitigate the effects of future storms, the unpredictable nature of these extreme weather events demands continued resilience and vigilance in disaster management.