Around midnight on October 25, 2023, with very little warning, Hurricane Otis struck the coastal city of Acapulco, Mexico, as a Category 5 hurricane. The storm's impact on Acapulco was devastating. Data from weather stations revealed that the storm delivered sustained winds of 113.64 mph (182.88 km/h) with gusts reaching a staggering 204.90 mph (329.76 km/h). 

Hurricane Otis was the strongest storm to ever hit Mexico - it was also one of the most poorly forecast. The economic toll was substantial with losses expected to be an estimated US$15 billion, surpassing records and rivaling Hurricane Wilma as Mexico's most expensive weather disaster. Tourism, a vital sector for Acapulco, faced a severe setback, with officials predicting a 16% shrinkage in the Guerrero gross domestic product in the period following.

Hurricane Otis was the fifteenth tropical storm and the tenth hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season. It was also the second Category 5 hurricane of the season. It originated from a storm cell several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. It was initially forecast only to be a weak tropical storm. But it intensified just before making landfall as it passed over the warm seawaters of Acapulco Bay. It exploded into peak winds of 165 miles per hour lasting one to two hours, devastating the city and its inhabitants.

Hurricane Otis - storm formation and path

On 15 October 2023, the United States National Hurricane Centre (NHC) reported that the storm had amplified and was developing a broad low-pressure area a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Initially, weather forecasters believed that this storm activity was just another tropical cyclone common at this time of the year.

However, convection grew as upper-level wind shear moved the storm to the west. By October 22, the NHC classified the storm system as Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. By now, the storm was located 530 miles south-south-east of Acapulco, Mexico. Within six hours, the system intensified into a tropical storm and was given the name Otis.

The ocean surface temperatures were 86–88 °F (30–31 °C) which was slightly above average for this time of year. The storm system then shifted from north to north-west - but with winds of only 4–5 mph (6–8 km/h). On the afternoon of 23 October, a convective band developed with thunderstorms.

By October 23-24, microwave satellite imagery showed a low-level ring structure and the storm’s forward motion increased. This began an intensification phase which continued until the storm struck Acapulco just after midnight on 25 October. At this time, the NHC upgraded Otis to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. However, the Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter mission found a much more intense system than that shown in the satellite imagery. Based upon this new data, the NHC then raised their predictions for Hurricane Otis to a Category 3 hurricane (with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h)). 

Rapid intensification of Hurricane Otis

In the final 24 hours before the storm made landfall, its intensification was one of the fastest observed in the satellite-era. The rapid intensification was one factor that caused many commentators later to validly speculate on theories around whether this storm was naturally occurring or was a result of weather manipulation.

During this time, Hurricane Otis’ maximum sustained winds increased by 110 to 115 mph (175 to 185 km/h), ranking it as the second-fastest-intensifying hurricane in recent history according to the National Hurricane Center. It was only surpassed by Hurricane Patricia which hit the Eastern Pacific in 2015. This increase in wind speed was typically considered too short for such a drastic escalation.

Weather forecasters believe that the warmer ocean temperatures combined with the wind shear worked together to intensify the storm. The rapid intensification also contributed to the lack of forecasting and warnings to the local population. 

The US NHC described Hurricane Otis as a "nightmare scenario". The storm struck near Acapulco, Mexico, at 1:25 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, October 25. This Category 5 hurricane brought 165 mph winds and a central pressure of 923 mb. Otis underwent an unexpected and rapid intensification, escalating from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds—a staggering 105 mph increase—within just 24 hours before landfall. Such rapid intensification is particularly dangerous as it leaves little time for people to prepare for the impending storm.

The National Hurricane Center reported that Otis’ peak intensification rate was 95 knots (110 mph) in 24 hours (ending at 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday), marking the second-highest rate in the Western Hemisphere, only surpassed by Hurricane Patricia's 120-mph increase off the Pacific coast of Mexico in 2015.

Approximately four hours before Otis' eyewall moved over, the Acapulco airport ceased transmitting data. However, Isla Roqueta, an island just offshore of Acapulco's west side, recorded sustained winds of 81 mph, gusting to 133 mph, at 12:45 a.m. CDT. A peak gust of 135 mph was recorded at 12:30 a.m. The minimum pressure at the station was 957 mb during the highest winds, indicating that the station missed the eye, which passed just south of the island.

Consequently, Acapulco's most heavily developed areas, with a population of just over 1 million, experienced the more powerful right-front winds of Otis. This event may have set a record for the largest number of people ever to experience the eyewall of a Category 5 storm, with the only comparable case being Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which hit South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds.

Forecasting failures

Weather forecasters in the United States said that forecasting models “completely blew it”. National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said “That’s a very bad scenario, populated area, rapid intensification very close to landfall, a change in the expectations about the impacts that’s happening on a time scale that doesn’t give people a lot of time to respond.”

Weather forecasters said that the storm’s unanticipated buildup occurred because the storm had “found a much more favorable environment than we were anticipating.” NHC Director Brennan said one part was warm water, another was that the winds — moving in the right direction and at the right altitude. These features encouraged a somewhat haphazard storm to rapidly develop structure and strengthen. The key to its amplification and speed was warm ocean water which provides the necessary fuel for hurricanes to grow big.

The satellite imagery with lightning shown above was taken at sunset on October 24, 2023, of Hurricane Otis as it rapidly intensified to category 5 strength en route to a landfall in Acapulco, Mexico.

Hurricane Otis - Making Landfall

When Hurricane Otis made landfall in Acapulco with winds of around 165 mph (270 km/hr) it became the fourth strongest landfalling Mexican hurricane by sustained wind speed. Hurricane Otis was similar in scope and damage to 1992 Hurricane Andrew which hit Miami - also a Category 5. 

Otis was designated a Category 5 hurricane when it was just 55 miles south-southeast of Acapulco at 10 pm as the city’s one million inhabitants were preparing to go to bed. One hour later, the storm reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 165 miles per hour and a minimum central barometric pressure of 923 mb. To put this number into perspective, the barometric pressure experienced in the eye of the storm of Hurricane Wilma (also a Category 5 storm,) which occurred on 19 October 2005, was 882 hPa (or 12.79 psi). 

It was accompanied by strong lightning with 26,000 strikes in the 24 hours before and after with the greatest activity occurring in the 35 minutes before the storm made landfall around 12.45 am. 

By the time the storm had crossed the port city and interacted with the mountains of Sierra Madre del Sur - the eye of the storm began to dissipate and disappear from satellite imagery. Its peak intensity was around 1.25 am. By 1pm the following day, the US National Hurricane Center downgraded the storm to a tropical cyclone. By then, the city was almost destroyed. The image below, posted on Instagram, shows parts of the city the day after the storm.

Damages and casualties

Official estimates stated that a total of 52 people were killed by Hurricane Otis with 32 listed missing in official figures released in December 2023. Three foreigners were included in the death toll. Acapulco locals challenged these figures as an underestimate and funeral homes in Acapulco calculated at least 350 deaths.

Because of the death and devastation to the city, the World Meteorological Organization decided to retire the name Otis from the eastern Pacific hurricane naming list in March 2024. And it was to be replaced by the name Otilio for the 2029 season.

The economic cost to the city was later estimated to have caused US$3.2 billion (or 53,198 million Mexican pesos) in damages.

Humourously, when Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador valiantly visited the city as part of recovery efforts in the days following the storm and his jeep became stuck on the water-logged roads, local commentators on social media couldn't help themselves and memes appeared suggesting that this was yet another of The Simpsons' predictions coming true.

Recovery and rebuilding

Recovery and rebuilding was slow, and Bloomberg reported that Acapulco's situation was still grim for several months after the event. Even one year later, the city was still recovering from the impact of Hurricane Otis, which left over $3.2 billion in damage. In this period, many of the city's hotels and condominiums along its famed beaches lay abandoned, with facades missing and swimming pools filled with debris. Despite some hotels reopening, the city's overall hotel capacity remained below 50% of its pre-hurricane levels, underscoring the ongoing challenges in Acapulco's tourism sector. 

Bloomberg reported continued widespread infrastructure issues such as malfunctioning traffic lights, streets cluttered with trash, and damaged roads rendering some areas inaccessible. By November 6, normal operations had resumed at 60 Pemex gas stations and local authorities estimated they had cleaned up 250 metric tons of garbage along Acapulco's coastal streets.

Nonetheless, six months post-hurricane, signs of devastation from Hurricane Otis were still evident in Acapulco. Beaches remain littered with washed-up boats, upscale restaurants were shuttered, and the marina was cluttered with half-sunken yachts and debris, as reported by Bloomberg and Expansión. Expansión further noted that Acapulco faced a lengthy path to recovery, citing slow progress and persistent trash accumulation as ongoing challenges.

Economically, Acapulco suffered a significant setback. Before Hurricane Otis, the city contributed 65% of Guerrero's tourism revenue; now, that figure had dwindled to just 23%, reflecting the severe impact on the local economy.

Beyond the physical and economic toll, Acapulco had to contend with serious security concerns. Bloomberg reported ongoing issues with gangs that seized control during the post-hurricane looting, particularly in non-tourist areas. Extortion and homicides were prevalent, underscoring the security challenges that persist despite efforts to restore normalcy.

Furthermore, Acapulco was grappling with a dengue outbreak exacerbated by the hurricane's destruction, which disrupted mosquito fumigation efforts in the city. This health crisis added another layer of complexity to Acapulco's recovery efforts, highlighting the multifaceted challenges the city faces in its journey toward rehabilitation and rebuilding.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador unveiled a 61.3-billion-peso (US$3.6 billion) recovery package for Acapulco and the neighboring municipality of Coyuca de Benítez just one week after Hurricane Otis struck the Guerrero coast. By February, Tourism Minister Torruco reported that the recovery efforts were progressing faster than initially anticipated.

However, despite these efforts, only 9,500 out of the 21,000 hotel rooms which were operational before Otis were currently able to accommodate guests. This meant that 55% of the rooms remained closed for some time following the storm.

According to Bloomberg, insurance companies had so far paid out only 9 billion pesos (approximately US$530 million) to property owners, despite initial damage estimates surpassing US$15 billion. The Mexican Association of Insurance Institutions projects eventual payouts to reach around US$2 billion which wasn't far off the final damages bill of $US3.2 billion.

Hurricane John - October 2024

To make matters worse, only one year later - in October 2024, Hurricane John hit Acapulco, although with far less severity. Hurricane John was a category 3 and it made landfall further south, still causing severe flooding and widespread damage to an already traumatised population. Hurricane John generated over one metre of rain and neighbourhoods were submerged with serious disruptions. Roads became impassable because of landslides. There were extensive power outages leaving tens of thousands of residents in both the state of Guerrero and Oaxaca without power. Around 40,000 homes were damaged which affected more than 150,000 residents.

Weather forecasting

Weather forecasting remains an imperfect science, despite significant technological advancements. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States recently unveiled a new $180 million supercomputer system capable of performing 69.7 trillion calculations per second, aimed at improving weather prediction accuracy. However, long-range forecasts still come with considerable uncertainties, even with the aid of sophisticated satellite imagery and other modern technologies. On a shorter scale, meteorologists can generally predict weather conditions quite reliably within the next 24 to 48 hours, often not requiring the most advanced tools.

Acapulco as a smart city

Some commentators have suggested that recovery and rebuilding efforts of coastal cities like Acapulco provide ideal opportunities for city planners to transform a devastated area into a smart "15-minute" city which is shown below in the AI rendering shared on social media in Acapulco.

Smart "15-minute" cities will conceivably include more advanced urban infrastructure, the Internet of Things (IoT) and real-time monitoring of the movement of citizens along with so-called smart energy and smart transportation systems. A digital smart city such as those envisioned by globalists, would conceivably reduce individual freedoms of citizens by imposing digital governance and mass surveillance. Presently, such a scenario seems unlikely in a city like Acapulco as it is (like much of Mexico) a cash-driven economy with strong familial, social, and community networks.

Nonetheless, concerns around the development of a smart city in Acapulco were linked to conspiracy theories that Hurricane Otis was a geoengineered weather event created by unknown malevolent state actors using technology available to agencies like HAARP (the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program) based in Alaska. And, in the months after the storm, there were videos and discussions on various social media platforms like X and Bitchute commenting on these theories, which are all worth considering.

Final thoughts

In conclusion, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Otis in Acapulco is a stark reminder of nature's unpredictable and destructive power. Despite significant advancements in weather forecasting technology, the storm's rapid intensification and the subsequent failure to provide adequate warnings highlight meteorologists' ongoing challenges. For the residents of Acapulco, the road to recovery was long and arduous, with the city grappling with both physical damage and a severely impacted economy. While recovery efforts were underway, including a substantial financial package from the Mexican government, the rebuilding process was slow, with many areas still facing significant infrastructural and security challenges. Hurricane Otis serves as a reminder that while progress in forecasting and preparedness can help mitigate the effects of future storms, the unpredictable nature of these extreme weather events demands continued resilience and vigilance in disaster management.